Publications

Submitted

[10] Climate Sensitivity from 21st-Century Trends in Earth's Energy Imbalance (in review).
Cooper, V. Geophysical Research Letters. [PDF]

[9] Radiative and dynamical controls on the land-ocean warming contrast in climate models (submitted).
Giani, P., A. Fiore, R. Ferrari, P. O'Gorman, V. Cooper, and N. Selin.

[8] Historical Pattern Effects and Climate Sensitivity Revisited with Novel Constraints on Past Warming Patterns (in minor revision).
Cooper, V., K. Armour, J. Gregory, T. Andrews, M. Günther, C. Fan. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5NF62 [PDF]

2026

[7] Using climate models in climate assessments: a Bayesian perspective (accepted).
Marvel, K., C. Jones, V. Cooper, and N. Steinert. Frontiers in Climate.

[6] Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming (2026).
Cooper, V., K. Armour, G. Hakim, J. Tierney, N. Burls, C. Proistosescu, T. Andrews, W. Dong, M. Dvorak, R. Feng, M. Osman, Y. Dong. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2511370123. [PDF] [SI]

2025

[5] Monthly Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation (2025).
Cooper, V., G. Hakim, and K. Armour. Journal of Climate. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0021.1. [PDF] [SI] [Link to dataset on Zenodo]

[4] Mid-Pliocene climate forcing, sea-surface temperature patterns, and implications for modern-day climate sensitivity (2025).
Dvorak, M., K. Armour, R. Feng, V. Cooper, J. Zhu, N. Burls, and C. Proistosescu. Journal of Climate. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0410.1. [PDF]

[3] Pliocene warmth and patterns of climate change inferred from paleoclimate data assimilation (2025).
Tierney, J., J. King, M. Osman, J. Abell, N. Burls, E. Erfani, V. Cooper, R. Feng. AGU Advances. doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001356. [PDF] [SI]

2024

[2] Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates (2024).
Cooper, V., K. Armour, G. Hakim, J. Tierney, M. Osman, C. Proistosescu, Y. Dong, N. Burls, T. Andrews, D. Amrhein, J. Zhu, W. Dong, Y. Ming, and P. Chmielowiec. Science Advances. doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk9461. [PDF] [PDF with SI]

Carbon Brief: Ice-age analysis suggests worst-case global warming is less likely (invited article)
Phys.org
The National (UK)
UW News

2022

[1] Wind waves in sea ice of the western Arctic and a global coupled wave-ice model (2022).
Cooper, V., L. Roach, J. Thomson, S. Brenner, M. Smith, M. Meylan, and C. Bitz. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0258.

Dissertation

Paleoclimate and Historical Perspectives on Modern Climate Sensitivity.
Cooper, V. Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington. ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, No. 32115188. ISBN: 9798288833878. [URL]. [PDF]

Presentations

2026

Constraining Modern Climate Sensitivity and Pattern Effects with New Paleoclimate and Historical Reconstructions.
EGU (May 2026). Session on Climate Sensitivity, Radiative Feedbacks, and the Pattern Effect. Invited Talk.

Paleoclimate Pattern Effects in the Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum Help Constrain Modern Climate Sensitivity.
EGU (May 2026). Session on Palaeoclimate modeling: From time-slices and sensitivity experiments to evaluating transient simulations for improved future projections. Poster. (Selected as EGU Highlight.)

Yale Atmosphere, Ocean, Climate Dynamics (AOCD) Seminar.
Yale University (April 2026). Invited Talk.

Paleoclimate pattern effects in the Pliocene lead to stronger constraints on climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide.
NSF COLDEX Seminar Series (February 2026). Talk.

2025

Radiative Feedbacks over the Historical Record: Insights from a New Reconstruction of Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea Ice.
AGU Fall Meeting (December 2025). Talk.

Paleoclimate and Historical Perspectives on Modern Climate Sensitivity.
WHOI Climate & Paleo Seminar (October 2025). Invited Talk.

Paleoclimate Pattern Effects Help Constrain Modern Climate Sensitivity.
Comer Climate Conference (September 2025).

Paleoclimate Pattern Effects Help Constrain Modern Climate Sensitivity.
Program on Climate Change Summer Institute at Friday Harbor Labs (September 2025). Invited Talk.

Paleoclimate and Historical Perspectives on Modern Climate Sensitivity.
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Seminar (May 2025). Invited Talk.

Paleoclimate and Historical Perspectives on Modern Climate Sensitivity.
Caltech ESE Seminar (April 2025). Invited talk.

The Last Glacial Maximum Pattern Effect.
NOAA GFDL Climate Sensitivity Seminar (January 2025). Invited talk.

2024

Historical Pattern Effects and Climate Sensitivity Revisited with Novel Constraints on Past Warming Patterns.
AGU Fall Meeting (December 2024). Received OSPA (Outstanding Student Presentation Award).

Paleoclimate Pattern Effects Lead to Stronger Constraints on Modern-day Climate Sensitivity.
AGU Fall Meeting (December 2024). Invited talk.

Climate Forcings and Feedbacks from Paleo to Pinatubo.
Harvard EPS Seminar (December 2024). Invited talk.

Paleoclimate pattern effects for PMIP/CMIP7: Last Glacial Maximum and Pliocene.
PMIP WINGS Seminar (November 2024). Invited talk.

Overview of Paleoclimate Pattern Effects and Constraints on Modern-day Climate Sensitivity.
NSF workshop on climate evolution from early Eocene to mid-Pliocene (August 2024). Invited talk.

Paleoclimate Pattern Effects and Revised Estimates of Modern-day Climate Sensitivity.
CFMIP/CLIVAR Conference on Clouds, Circulation, and Climate (June 2024). Talk. Received CFMIP Early Career Scientist Award.

Paleoclimate Pattern Effects and Revised Estimates of Modern-day Climate Sensitivity.
CESM Paleoclimate Working Group Meeting (February 2024). Talk.

2023

Pliocene Pattern Effects and Constraints on Climate Sensitivity.
Cooper, V., K. Armour, G. Hakim, J. Tierney, N. Burls, C. Proistosescu, M. Dvorak, Y. Dong, T. Andrews, J. Zhu, J. King, M. Osman, W. Dong, and Y. Ming. AGU Fall Meeting (December 2023). Talk.

Variability in Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Patterns from Coupled Data Assimilation, 1850–present.
Cooper, V., G. Hakim, and K. Armour. AGU Fall Meeting (December 2023). Poster. Received OSPA (Outstanding Student Presentation Award). [Download Poster PDF]

Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates.
Cooper, V., K. Armour, G. Hakim, J. Tierney, M. Osman, C. Proistosescu, Y. Dong, N. Burls, T. Andrews, D. Amrhein, J. Zhu, W. Dong, Y. Ming, and P. Chmielowiec. ECS & Cloud Feedback Symposium (October 2023). Invited talk. [Recording available]

2022

The Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effect in the Last Glacial Maximum Reduces Climate Sensitivity Estimates.
Cooper, V., K. Armour, C. Proistosescu, Y. Dong, G. Hakim, J. Tierney, M. Osman, N. Burls, D. Amrhein, T. Andrews, Y. Ming, W. Dong, and P. Chmielowiec. AGU Fall Meeting (December 2022). Talk.

The Last Glacial Maximum Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effect.
Cooper, V., K. Armour, C. Proistosescu, P. Chmielowiec, J. Tierney, M. Osman, Y. Dong, G. Hakim, D. Amrhein, N. Burls, and S. Knapp. CFMIP (June 2022). Poster. [Download Poster]

Wind waves in sea ice of the western Arctic and a global coupled wave-ice model.
Cooper, V., Roach, L., Thomson, J., Brenner, S., Smith, M., Meylan, M., and C. Bitz. National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate Fellowship Conference (July 2022). Poster. [Download Poster]

The Last Glacial Maximum Pattern Effect.
Cooper, V., K. Armour, C. Proistosescu, P. Chmielowiec, J. Tierney, M. Osman, Y. Dong, G. Hakim, D. Amrhein, N. Burls, and S. Knapp. Pattern Effect Workshop (Boulder, CO, May 2022). Poster. [Download Poster]

Wind waves in sea ice and a global coupled wave-ice model.
Cooper, V., L. Roach, J. Thomson, S. Brenner, M. Smith, M. Meylan, and C. Bitz. Antarctic Sea Ice and Southern Ocean Seminars, hosted by The University of Texas at San Antonio (April 2022). Invited talk.

2021

Waves in the Marginal Ice Zone: Insights from Observations and Modeling.
Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Conference, American Meteorological Society (Polar AMS, June 2021). Received Third Place OSPA (Outstanding Student Presentation Award). Poster. [Download Poster]

2020

Towards Validating Wave-Ice Interactions in Climate Models Using In Situ Observations.
Cooper, V., L. Roach, J. Thomson, S. Brenner, M. Smith, and C. Bitz. AGU Fall Meeting (December 2020). Received OSPA (Outstanding Student Presentation Award).